Apple Watch 85% Accuracy in Detecting Diabetes May Be Precursor of Early Diagnoses

Permit me to (re-)introduce myself, LOL.

I haven’t posted since the end of October, because I was totally absorbed in writing The Future is Smart, my book about IoT strategy, which will be released in August by AMACOM, the publishing wing of the American Management Association. A major theme of the book is that the IoT lifts what I term the condition of  “Collective Blindness” that used to plague us before the advent of real-time data from sensors and the analytical software to interpret that data. Collective Blindness meant that we were frequently operating in figurative darkness, having to guess about how things worked or didn’t without direct observational data, which meant that we frequently didn’t learn about problems inside things until after the fact, which could mean costly (and sometimes fatal) corrective maintenance was all that was possible.

Those “things” unfortunately included the human body.

Usually the only way to uncover a problem inside our bodies pre-IoT was through costly pre-arranged tests at the doctor’s or a hospital. They could only provide a snapshot in time, documenting your body’s state at that precise moment (when, after all, you might be flat on your back wearing a johnny — not exactly representative of your actual condition as you go about your daily routine!). If you had no complaint warranting such a test, the condition might go undiagnosed until it was significantly worse (remember the contrast between prompt predictive maintenance of a jet turbine and costly emergency repairs when a disaster loomed?).

That’s why the news from Brandon Ballinger, the Google alum who was co-founder of the Cardiogram app (get it! I did! and I joined their Artificial Intelligence-driven Health eHeart Study as well!) is so important. In a clinical study released last week, the research team found that the Apple Watch is 85% accurate in detecting diabetes in those previously diagnosed with the disease. The paper was presented at the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence last week in New Orleans.

Results from heart monitoring with Apple Watch and Cardiogram app

The study analyzed data from 14,000 Apple Watch users, finding that 462 participants through the heart rate sensor, the same type of sensor.

The investigation tested a 2015 finding by our famous local Framingham Heart Study that resting heart rate and heart rate variability significantly predicted incident diabetes and hypertension.

According to TechCrunch,  Ballinger’s team had previously used the Watch “to detect an abnormal heart rhythm with up to a 97 percent accuracy, sleep apnea with a 90 percent accuracy and hypertension with an 82 percent accuracy when paired with Cardiogram’s AI-based algorithm.”

This is important for several reasons.

We’ve read for several years about single-purpose devices that might be able to diagnose diabetes and determine the need for insulin without painful pinpricks, but the Cardiograph research might show that simply harvesting enough data with a multi-purpose fitness device such as the Watch and being able to interpret it creatively with Artificial Intelligence would be enough. That’s the logical next step with the Health eHeart Study.

It reminds me of the example I’ve mentioned several times before of neonatologists from Toronto’s Hospital for Sick Children and IBM data scientists combining to analyze the huge amount of sensor data harvested from preemies’ bassinettes and being able to diagnose a potentially-lethal neonatal sepsis infection a full day before any visible sign of the infection.

Given these two examples, one must ask, how many other health problems might be diagnosed in their earliest stages, which cures are most likely and least expensive, if routine monitoring through devices such as the Apple Watch become commonplace and the results are crunched with AI? In particular, this could be a key part of my SmartAging concept.



NB: I work part-time for The Apple Store, but am not privy to any strategy or inside information. These opinions are purely my own as an Apple Watch user.


Outside the (Shoe) Box Internet of Things Thinking!

Posted on 30th March 2015 in design, Internet of Things, retail, strategy, wearables

Could someone please forward this to Carrie Bradshaw? I don’t think she reads this blog, but she’d definitely be interested!

I’ve got to confess that I’m usually oblivious to the world of fashion — or appalled by it (there’s a current ad by Gucci in one of my wife’s magazines that frankly scares me: not sure which looks more weird: the emaciated, heavily-made-up model or the dress!), but this one caught my eye as a way women can have a more versatile wardrobe that takes up less space and saves them money!  Neat, huh?

Equally important, it may be the precursor of a wide range of mass-customized Internet of Things devices of all types that are more personal, create new revenue streams, and provide valuable feedback to the manufacturer on customer tastes.

Ishuu, a Lithuanian startup, is creating a new line of très stylish women’s shoes, Volvorii, that include a strip of e-ink material (similar to a Kindle screen) that can be customized by the owner simply by opening an app on her phone! The requisite electronics are housed in the heels.

As of this writing, the Volvorii Indegogo campaign has raised $34,000 of its $50,000 target, with 14 days to go. If I didn’t send every spare dollar to Loyola University – Maryland for my son’s tuition, I think I’d drop a few on this one: it really intrigues me!

If Ishuu is smart, I’d suggest that they throw open the API for the shoes, and allow bright young fashion design students to submit new designs for the insert.

As for those IoT-based products that are more personal, create new revenue streams, and provide valuable feedback to the manufacturer on customer tastes, here are a few more exciting examples to get you noodling about how you might redesign your own products to capitalize on this potential:

What I love about this as a consumer is that we will no longer have to make difficult binary choices between products: instead of either/or, it will be this/and this (in the case of the Watch and these shoes, I love that there will be so many choices that you’ll be able to change your choice on the fly depending on your mood or other factors.  I’m going to choose toe-tapping Mickey when I’m with my grandchildren, the Utility to keep track of biz during the day, and the Simple for more dignified evening wear.

These fall into my What Can You Do Now That You Couldn’t Do Before category. It’s going to take us a while to ditch our old, more limited mindsets, but the rest will be better for everyone.

Apple Watch: killer app for IoT and lynchpin for “smart aging”

Wow: glad I put up with all of the tech problems during the Apple product launch today: the Apple Watch was worth it! It really seems as if it will be the killer device/app for the Internet of Things consumer market, and I think it may also be the lynchpin for my vision of “smart aging,” which would link both wearable health devices and smart home devices.

The elegant, versatile displays (it remains to be seen how easy it will be for klutzes like me to use the Digital Crown and some of the other navigation tools) plus the previously announced Health and Home Apps that are part of iOS 8 could really be the glue that brings together Quantified Self and smart home devices, making “smart aging” possible.

Activity AppIt will take some time to learn all about the watch and to see what apps the “Watch Kit” spawns, but here are some immediate reactions:

  • sorry, but I think it could kill the Lechal haptic shoes before they get off the ground: why have to pay extra for shoes that will vibrate to tell you where to go when your watch can do the same thing with its “Taptic Engine”?
  • I think I’ll also ditch my Jawbone UP, as much as I love it, for the Apple Watch: the video on how the Activity and Workout apps will work makes it look incredibly simple to view your fitness data instantly, vs. having to open an app on your phone.
  • (Just dreaming here): if they can pull off that neat “Milanese Loop” band on one of the versions that clamps to itself, what about not just a heart beat monitor, but a band that converts into a blood-pressure cuff? Guess that wouldn’t be accurate on the wrist, anyway, huh?">Stephenson blogs on Internet of Things Internet of Things strategy, breakthroughs and management