Lifting the Veil After the Sale: another IoT “Essential Truth”

Count me among those who believe the Internet of Things will affect every aspect of corporate operations, from manufacturing to customer relations.

Perhaps one of the most dramatic impacts will be on the range of activities that take place after the sale, including maintenance, product liability, product upgrades and customer relations.

In the past, this has been a prime example of the “Collective Blindness” that afflicted us before the IoT, because we basically had no idea what happened with our products once they left the factory floor.

In fact, what little data we did have probably served to distort our impressions of how products were actually used. Because there was no direct way to find out how the products were actually used, negative data was probably given exaggerated weight: we heard negative comments (warrantee claims, returns, liability lawsuits, etc.), loud and clear, but there was no way to find out how the majority of customers who were pleased with their products used them.

That has all changed with the IoT.

Now, we have to think about products  in totally new ways to capitalize on the IoT, and I think this merits another “Essential Truth” about the IoT:

Everything is cyclical.

Think about products — and industrial processes in general — in the old industrial system. Everything was linear: perhaps best exemplified by Henry Ford’s massive River Rouge Complex, the world’s largest integrated factory, and the epitome of integrated production.

Ford River Rouge Complex

“Ford was attempting to control and coordinate all of the necessary resources to produce complete automobiles.  Although Ford’s vision was never completely realized, no one else has come so close, especially on such a large scale.  His vision was certainly a success, one indication of this is the term Fordism, which refers to his style of mass-production, characterized by vertical integration, standardized products and assembly-line production”

At “The Rouge,” raw materials (literally: it had its own coke ovens and foundry!)  flowed in one side, and completed cars flowed out the other, bound for who knows where. Once the cars were in customers’ hands, the company’s contact was limited to whatever knowledge could be gleaned from owners’ visits to dealers’ service departments, irate calls from customers who had problems, and (in later days) safety recalls and/or multi-million dollar class-action lawsuits.

That linear thinking led to a terrible example of the “Collective Blindness” phenomenon that I’ve written about in the past: who knew how customers actually thought about their Model T’s? How did they actually drive them? Were there consistent patterns of performance issues that might not have resulted in major problems, but did irritate customers?

Sure, you could guess, or try to make inferences based on limited data, but no one really knew.

Fast forward to the newest auto manufacturer, Tesla, and its factory in Fremont, California (aside: this massive building — Tesla only uses a portion, used to be the NUMMI factory, where Chevy built Novas and Toyota built Corollas. Loved the perceptual irony: exactly the same American workers built mechanically identical cars [only the sheet metal varied] but the Toyotas commanded much higher prices, because of the perception of “Japanese quality.” LOL. But I digress….).

Tesla doesn’t lose track of its customers once the cars leave the plant.

Tesla assembly line

In fact, as I’ve written before, these “iPhones on wheels” are part of a massive cyclical process, where the cars’ on-board communications constantly send back data to the company about how the cars are actually doing on the road. And, when need be, as I mentioned in that prior post, the company was able to solve a potentially dangerous problem by simply sending out a software patch that was implemented while owners slept, without requiring customer trips to a repair shop!

I imagine that the company’s design engineers also pour over this data to discern patterns that might indicate elements of the physical design to tweak as well.

Of course, what would a blog post by me about IoT paradigm shifts be without a gratuitous reference to General Electric and its Durathon battery plant (aside to GE accounting: where should I send my W-9 and invoice so you can send me massive check for all the free PR I’ve given you? LOL)?

I can’t think of a better example of this switch to cyclical thinking:

  • including sensors into the batteries at the beginning of the production process rather than slapping them on at the end means that the company is actually able to monitor, and fine tune, the manufacturing process to optimize the critical chemical reaction. The same data allows the workers to remove defective batteries from the assembly line, so that every battery that ships works.
  • once in the field (and, remember: these batteries are deployed in incredibly remote areas where it might take days for a repair crew to reach and either service or repair them) the same sensors send back data on how the batteries are functioning. I don’t know about the specifics in the case of these batteries, but GE has actually created new revenue streams with other continuously-monitored devices by selling this data to customers who can use it (because the data is shared on a real-time basis, not just historically) to optimize performance.

Elsewhere, as I’ve mentioned before, General Electric’s William Ruh has said that being able to lift the veil of “Collective Blindness” through feedback from how customers actually use their products has even revolutionized their product design process:

“… G.E. is adopting practices like releasing stripped-down products quickly, monitoring usage and rapidly changing designs depending on how things are used by customers. These approaches follow the ‘lean start-up’ style at many software-intensive Internet companies. “’We’re getting these offerings done in three, six, nine months,’ he (Ruh) said. ‘It used to take three years.’”

Back in the ’90’s, I used to lecture and consult on what I called “Natural Wealth,” a paradigm shift in which we’d find all the inspiration we needed for an information-based economy in a table-top terrarium that embodies billion-year-old  principles of nature:

  • embrace chaos, don’t try to control it. (i.e., use open systems rather than proprietary ones)
  • create symbiosis: balance competition with cooperation (IFTTT.com, where you release your APIs to create synergistic mashups with others).
  • close the loop.

With the IoT, we can finally put that last principle into practice, substituting cyclical processes for linear ones.  At long last, the “systems dynamics” thinking pioneered by Jay Forrester and his disciple, Peter Senge, can become a reality. Here’s a closing tip to make that possible: in addition to SAP’s HANA or other analytics packages, look to systems dynamics software such as isee systems’  iThink to model your processes and transform linear into cyclical ones. Now get going: close the loop!

I’ll be on SAP Radio Again Today: the IoT and Big Data

I’ll be on SAP’s “Coffee Breaks With Game Changers” radio again today, live @ 2 EST, appearing again with SAP’s David Jonker, again talking about the IoT and Big Data.  This time I plan to speak about:

  • Integrating real-time and historic data in decision-making:  in the past, it was so hard to glean real-time operating data that we had to operate on the basis of inferring about how to manage the future based on analysis of past data.  Now we have a more difficult challenge: learn to balance past and real-time data.
  • Sharing data in real-time: In the past, data trickled down from top management and might (or might not) eventually get to operators on the shop floor.  Now, everyone can get immediate access to it. Will senior managers continue to be the gatekeepers, or will everyone have real-time access to the data that might allow them to do their jobs more effectively (for example, fine-tuning production processes).

  • Revolutionizing decision-making: Decision-making will also change, because of everyone being able to have simultaneous access to data. Does it really make sense any more for sequential decision-making by various siloed departments when they might all benefit by making the decisions simultaneously and collaboratively, based on the data?

Tune in!

comments: Comments Off on I’ll be on SAP Radio Again Today: the IoT and Big Data tags: , , ,

My #IoT predictions for 2015

I was on a live edition of “Coffee Break With Game-Changers” a few hours ago with panelists Sherryanne Meyer of Air Products and Chemicals and Sven Denecken of SAP, talking about tech projections for 2015.

Here’s what I said about my prognostications:

“I predict that 2015 will be the year that the Internet of Things penetrates consumer consciousness — because of the Apple Watch. The watch will unite both health and smart home apps and devices, and that will mean you’ll be able to access all that usability just by looking at your watch, without having to fumble for your phone and open a specific app.

If Apple chooses to share the watch’s API on the IFTTT – If This Then That — site, the Apple phone’s adoption – and usability — will go into warp speed. We won’t have to wait for Apple or developers to come up with novel ways of using the phone and the related devices — makers and just plain folks using IFTTT will contribute their own “recipes” linking them. This “democratization of data” is one of the most powerful – and under-appreciated – aspects of the IoT. In fact, Sherryanne, I think one of the most interesting IoT strategy questions for business is going to be that we now have the ability to share real time data with everyone in the company who needs it – and even with supply chain and distribution networks – and we’ll start to see some discussion of how we’ll have to change management practices to capitalize on this this instant ability to share.

(Sven will be interested in this one) In 2015, the IoT is also going to speed the development of fog computing, where the vast quantities of data generated by the IoT will mean a switch to processing data “at the edge,” and only passing on relevant data to the cloud, rather than overwhelming it with data – most of which is irrelevant.

In 2015 the IoT is also going to become more of a factor in the manufacturing world. The success of GE’s Durathon battery plant and German “Industry 4.0” manufacturers such as Siemans will mean that more companies will develop incremental IoT strategies, where they’ll begin to implement things such as sensors on the assembly line to allow real-time adjustments, then build on that familiarity with the IoT to eventually bring about revolutionary changes in every aspect of their operations.

2015 will also be the year when we really get serious about IoT security and privacy, driven by the increasing public concern about the erosion of privacy. I predict that if anything can hold back the IoT at this point, it will be failure to take privacy and security seriously. The public trust is extremely fragile: if even some fledgling startup is responsible for a privacy breach, the public will tend to tar the entire industry with the same brush, and that could be disastrous for all IoT firms. Look for the FTC to start scrutinizing IoT claims and levying more fines for insufficient security.”

What’s your take on the year ahead? Would love your comments!

comments: Comments Off on My #IoT predictions for 2015 tags: , , , , , ,

Interview w/ Echelon for its IoT blog

Just finished a delightful interview with three Echelon staffers for a forthcoming piece on its blog about my prognostications for the Industrial Internet of Things (AKA “Industrial Internet” ien GE-marketing speak).  They’ve been around in this field since the dark ages — 1988, and are now focusing on industrial applications.

My main point to them was the one I made in the SAP “Managing the Internet of Things Revolution” e-guide,  that even though the IoT hasn’t realized its full potential yet, that smart companies would begin creating and executing an IoT strategy now, “to connect their existing infrastructure and enhance key foundational IoT technologies,” optimizing their operating efficiency. Then they could build on that experience to make more fundamental transformations.

We touched 0n several other examples how the IoT could increase operating efficiency or make fundamental transformations:

At any rate, a fun time was had by all, and I’ll let you know when their blog post is up!

I’ll be on “Game Changer” Radio Today @ 3 EST Talking About IoT

Huzzah!  I’ll be a guest on Bonnie Graham’s “Coffee Break With Game Changers” show live, today @ 3 PM to discuss the Internet of Things. SAP Radio

Other guests will include David Jonker, sr. director of Big Data Initiatives at SAP, and Ira Berk, vice-president of Solutions Go-to-market at SAP, who has global responsibility for the IoT infrastructure and middleware portfolio.

Among other topics that I hope to get to during the discussion:

  • The “Collective Blindness” meme that I raised recently — and how the IoT removes it.
  • The difficult shift companies will need to make from past practices, where information was a zero-sum game, where hoarding information led to profit, to one where sharing information is the key. Who else can use this information?
  • How the IoT can bring about an unprecedented era of “Precision Manufacturing,” which will not only optimize assembly line efficiency and eliminate waste, but also integrate the supply chain and distribution network.
  • The sheer quantity of data with the IoT threatens to overwhelm us. As much as possible, we need to migrate to “fog computing,” where as much data as possible is processed at the edge, with only the most relevant data passing to the cloud (given the SAP guys’ titles, I assume this will be of big interest to them.
  • The rise of IFTTT.com, which means device manufacturers don’t have to come up with every great way to use their devices: use open standards, just publish the APIs to IFTTT, and let the crowd create creative “recipes” to use the devices.
  • Safety and security aren’t the other guy’s problem: EVERY device manufacturer must build in robust security and privacy protections from the beginning. Lack of public trust can undermine everyone in the field.
  • We can cut the cost of seniors’ care and improve their well being, through “smart aging,” which brings together Quantified Self fitness devices that improve their care and make health care a doctor-patient partnership, and “smart home” devices that automate home functions and make them easier to manage.

Hope you can listen in.  The show will be archived if you can’t make it for the live broadcast .

comments: Comments Off on I’ll be on “Game Changer” Radio Today @ 3 EST Talking About IoT tags: , , , , ,

Perhaps Most Important Internet of Things Essential Truth: Everything’s Linked

PROCEED WITH CAUTION!

You see, I’m thinking out loud (that accounts for that sound of gears grinding….) — I really am writing this post as I mull over the subject for the first time, so you’re forewarned that the result may be a disaster — or insightful. Bear with me…

I’m working on a book outline expanding on “Managing the Internet of Things Revolution,” the introduction to IoT strategy for C-level executives that I wrote for SAP. One of the things I’ve been looking for is a theme that would bring together all of the book’s parts, which include product design, manufacturing, marketing and corporate organization, among other topics.

I think I’ve got that theme, and I think it may be the most Essential Truth of all the ones I’ve written about regarding the IoT:

Everything’s Linked!

When you think about it, there have been a lot of dead-ends in business in the past:

  • we haven’t been able to know how customers used our products. We’ve actually got a lot more information about the ones that failed, because of warrantee claims or complaints, than we have about the ones that worked well, because that information was impossible to gather.
  • data that could help workers do their work better has always come from top down, filtered by various levels of management and only delivered after the fact.
  • customers can’t get the full value of our products because they operate in isolation from each other, and often were slow to react to changing conditions.
  • assembly-line machinery has frequently been hard to optimize, because we really didn’t know how it was operating — until it broke down.
  • key parts of the operation, such as supply chain, manufacturing, and distribution, have been largely independent, without simultaneous access to each other’s status.

With the Internet of Things, by contrast, everything will be linked, and that will change everything:

  • we’ll get real-time data about how customers are using our products. Most radically, that data may even allow us, instead of selling products and then severing our ties to the customer as in the past, to instead lease them the products, with the pricing dependent on how they actually use the products and the value they obtain from them.
  • everyone in the company can (if your management practices allow!) have real-time access to data that will help them improve their decision making and daily operations (hmm: still looking for an example of this one: know any companies that are sharing data on a real-time basis??).
  • products will work together, with synergistic results (as with the Jawbone UP turning on the NEXT), with their operation automatically triggered and coordinated by services such as IFTTT.
  • the assembly line can be optimized because we’ll be able to “see” into massive equipment to learn how it is operating — or if it needs repairs in time to avoid catastrophic failure.
  • access to that same data may even be shared with your supply chain and distribution network — or even with customers (again, looking for a good example of that transformation).

There’s won’t be dead ends or one-way streets where information only flows one way. Instead, they’ll be replaced by loops (in fact, I thought loops might be an alternative theme): in many cases, data will be fed back through M2M systems so things can be optimized.

If that’s the case, we’ll be able to increase the use and value of tools such as systems dynamics software, that would help us model and act on these links and loops. Instead of massive oscillations where we’re forced to make sudden, major corrections when data finally becomes available, machinery will be largely self-regulating, based on continuous feedback. We’ll delight customers because products will be more dependable and we’ll be able to fine-tune them by adding features based on actual knowledge of how the products work.  Workers will be more efficient, and happier, because they’ll be empowered. We’ll tread lightly on the earth, because we’ll use only what we need, precisely when we need it.

By George, I think I’ve got it! I’m excited about this vision of the Internet of Things linking everything. What do you think?? Please let me know! 

comments: Comments Off on Perhaps Most Important Internet of Things Essential Truth: Everything’s Linked tags: , , , ,

Smart Washing Machine: another example of “just because you can doesn’t mean you should”

When I buy the much-hyped smart refrigerator, you’ll know I’ve officially gone around the bend, and have officially surrendered to IoT hype: it makes sense for those who buy a ton of processed foods with bar codes on them, but I just can’t see the value to those of us who buy a lot of label-less veggies from farmers markets, for example.

In a close second place on my personal list of those IoT devices that violate one of my Essential Truths of the IoT: “just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should” would be a smart washing machine.

As the Washington Post wrote about Whirlpool’s $1,699 “smart” washer,

“Few expected ‘smart’ machines would fly off the shelves. They’re expensive, and Americans don’t typically replace their washers and dryers all that often. But analysts say the problem is bigger than that. Today’s smartest washer and dryer set won’t fold your clothes, erase wrinkles or stop you from mixing reds and whites. It won’t even move a load from one machine to the other. So what’s the point?”

I know there are going to be some false starts in creating IoT-enabled products that really do provide value, and good for Whirlpool for experimenting, but I do wonder whether something we used to call “common sense” is sorely lacking in some companies’ IoT decision-making.

IMHO, it would really be helpful if my washer and dryer could go on late at night to take advantage of utilities’ off-peak pricing as part of their smart grid initiatives (to their credit, as you’ll see from the photo of the companion smart dryer, a smart grid link is part of these appliances)

smart grid button on Whirlpool dryer

. However, I suspect that would be easily possible if the utilities just published APIs so some smart IFTTT user could create a “recipe” that would turn on an utterly-conventional washer that was plugged into a WeMo smart plug (hmm: did a search for that, and found a recipe that would automatically turn off a washer plugged into a WeMo if a Nest alarm detected a fire: nice, but rather low on my list of what I’d want to have done in case of a fire….).

So, yea, smart appliances, but let’s also make sure that one of the questions companies ask before committing to a really expensive initiative is: “do we really need it?”

comments: Comments Off on Smart Washing Machine: another example of “just because you can doesn’t mean you should” tags: , , ,

Thermostats: yet another example why open standards win with #IoT

Despite my passion for all things Apple and the incredible functionality that comes from Tim Cook’s passion for integrating all parts of the ecosystem seamlessly (and, as I’ve noted in prior disclaimers, my part-time work at the Apple Store ..), I don’t think there’s any doubt when it comes to the Internet of Things that open standards win out.

That’s because they meet the test of my favorite Essential Truth, “who else can use this data?”

It goes back to my Data Dynamite book and my work with Vivek Kundra when he was opening up data in the District of Columbia before becoming the US CIO: when you share data, you empower end users and can go beyond your own developers’ talents and interests, to harvest others’ interests and developments.

opower_sHere’s a great example. Opower’s OpenStat API enables the electric  industry’s only open thermostat management platform. It allows any smart thermostat provider to participate in existing Opower-managed utility thermostat programs. It combines energy usage, billing, parcel and weather data to engage customers, drive measurable energy efficiency, and deliver reliable demand response.  It already has 95 partner utilities, 50 million (really? that sounds high to me…) homes in 35 states sharing data.

By contrast, Nest (which of course was created by Apple alums) had to create a specific API to allow sharing its data. 

This API is Nest’s answer to the Learning Thermostat’s lack of Z-Wave or ZigBee wireless communication. Nest came under fire from the CEDIA crowd when the Learning Thermostat launched since it wouldn’t work within even $100k home automation systems. The thermostat wasn’t friendly with others. It wouldn’t talk to other home automation products using the legacy home automation protocols. This API could change everything.

The jury’s still out — and it will really be interesting to see how many other companies decide to integrate with Apple’s new Health and Home apps. On one hand, a proliferation of standards just retards more creative API mashups, a la IFTTT (my heros!!). On the other, seamless integration and ease-of-use, the Apple hallmarks, could go a long way to ingraining the IoT into consumers’ daily lives.

What do you think?

 

comments: Comments Off on Thermostats: yet another example why open standards win with #IoT

IoT ideal example of “recombinant innovation”!

I’m currently reading Erik Brynjolfsson (say that one fast three times…) and Andy McAfee’s brilliant The Second Machine Age, which I highly recommend as an overview of the opportunities and pitfalls of what they call “brilliant technologies.”

While they don’t specifically mention the IoT, I was riveted by one section in which they contrasted current digital innovation with past technologies, using economist Paul Romer‘s term “recombinant innovation”:

Economic growth occurs whenever people take resources and rearrange them in ways that make them more valuable…. Every generation has perceived the limits to growth that finite resources and undesirable side effects would pose if no new … ideas were discovered. And every generation has underestimated the potential for finding new … ideas. We consistently fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered… Possibilitities do not merely add up, they multiply.” (my emphasis)

I felt like Dr. Pangloss, who was surprised to learn he’d been speaking prose all his life: I realized Romer’s term and definition was a more elegant version of what I’ve written before, especially about IFTTT, about an Essential Truth of the IoT — that sharing data is critical to achieving the IoT’s full potential. IFTTT is a great example of Romer’s argument in practice: individuals are “taking resource and rearrang(ing) them in ways that make them more valuable.” As Brynjolfsson and McAfee write:

“.. digital innovation is recombinant innovation in its purest form. Each development becomes a building block for future innovations. Progress doesn’t run out; it accumulates. And the digital world doesn’t respect any boundaries. It extends into the physical one, leading to cars and planes that drive themselves, printers that make parts, and so on….We’ll call this the ‘innovation-as-building-block’ view of the world..” (again, my emphasis)

This is such a powerful concept. Think of Legos — not those silly ones that dominate today, where they are so specialized they can only be used in making a specific kit — but the good ol’ basic ones that could be reused in countless ways. It’s why I happen to believe that all the well-thought-out projections on the IoT’s potential size probably are on the low side: there’s simply no way that we can predict now all the creative, life-saving, money-saving, or quality-of-life-enhancing ways the IoT will manifest itself until people within and outside of organizations take new IoT devices and use them in IFTTT-like “Recipes” that would never have occurred to the devices’ creators.  But beware: none of this will happen if companies use proprietary standards or don’t open their APIs and other tools to all those who can benefit.

How exciting!

comments: Comments Off on IoT ideal example of “recombinant innovation”! tags: , , , , , , ,

Why It’s So Hard to Predict Internet of Things’ Full Impact: “Collective Blindness”

I’ve been trying to come up with a layman’s analogy to use in explaining to skeptical executives about how dramatic the Internet of Things’ impact will be on every aspect of business and our lives, and why, if anything, it will be even more dramatic than experts’ predictions so far (see Postscapes‘ roundup of the projections).

See whether you thing “Collective Blindness” does justice to the potential for change?

 

What if there was a universal malady known as Collective Blindness, whose symptoms were that we humans simply could not see much of what was in the world?

Even worse, because everyone suffered from the condition, we wouldn’t even be aware of it as a problem, so no one would research how to end it. Instead, for millennia we’d just come up with coping mechanisms to work around the problem.

Collective Blindness would be a stupendous obstacle to full realization of a whole range of human activities (but, of course, we couldn’t quantify the problem’s impact because we weren’t even aware that it existed).

Collective Blindness has been a reality, because vast areas of our daily reality have been unknowable in the past, to the extent that we have just accepted it as a condition of reality.

Consider how Collective Blindness has limited our business horizons.

We couldn’t tell when a key piece of machinery was going to fail because of metal fatigue.

We couldn’t tell how efficiently an entire assembly line was operating, or how to fully optimize its performance.

We couldn’t tell whether a delivery truck would be stuck in traffic.

We couldn’t tell exactly when we’d need a parts shipment from a supplier, nor would the supplier know exactly when to do a new production run to be read.

We couldn’t tell how customers actually used our products.

That’s all changing now. Collective Blindness is ending, …. and will be eradified by the Internet of Things.

What do you think? Useful analogy?

http://www.stephensonstrategies.com/">Stephenson blogs on Internet of Things Internet of Things strategy, breakthroughs and management